Over 8 years of conjecture and speculation are finally over with – they really are going to play a World Cup in Qatar, in November and December, in a 20-square mile radius around the capital Doha, in stadiums built essentially with forced labor. What a fall from grace for the world’s greatest sporting event. The feeling of glee and wonder that filled all football fans’ hearts for South Korea/Japan 2002, Germany 2006, South Africa 2010 and Brazil 2014 is firmly in the rear-view mirror with a second consecutive World Cup played in an authoritarian state.
I’m beginning to think the 2010 and 2014 World Cups will be the gold standard fans look back on for decades as the last time the game was truly fun – thanks, FIFA. Each fan that enters the tiny Gulf nation is required to submit to constant monitoring, with dozens of high-profile attendees being paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to convince global fans that everything’s actually great and none of this is really happening. It’s sickening – a game we all love tainted by hate, discrimination, sexism, and with hundreds of migrant workers’ lives lost building these stadiums in brutal heat, and all for a one-month shelf life on the global stage.
Had this tournament been held in the United States, as was originally expected, perhaps we’d be talking about Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo’s final shot at the only trophy that has eluded them both. Maybe we’d be dreaming of a young, hungry American team looking to shock the world on home soil. We could be discussing whether Harry Kane, Neymar, or Kylian Mbappe could be the new greatest player in the world if they lift their nation to a title. Or we all could debate whether a shocking champion could emerge from the Spain/Germany/Netherlands/Belgium/Croatia/Uruguay/Denmark second tier of contenders.
Instead, we’re left with an awful taste in our mouths before a single ball is kicked. In solidarity with the athletes who have given every ounce of their talents to the beautiful game in the hopes of playing at a World Cup, and especially with respect to those athletes who will protest as they play these tainted games, I’m going to break down how I think each team will fare at the 22nd FIFA World Cup.
GROUP A
Netherlands – Group winners. This is as high-variance as it gets at a World Cup. The ceiling is to win the whole thing, with an elite, experienced coach who’s been here before in Louis Van Gaal and a roster full of top talent. The floor is missing the knockout round entirely in a group that is more difficult than most are expecting. A win against Senegal is crucial.
Qatar – Group runners-up. If you don’t think the Qataris, who spent tens of billions of dollars acquiring and assembling this World Cup, wouldn’t spend a few million more rigging it to get to the knockout round – I have a bridge to sell you.
Ecuador – 3rd place. It’s a bit of a risk picking them to finish ahead of Senegal but I think having the advantage of playing Qatar first should at least give them a chance to get off on solid footing before facing the big guns.
Senegal – 4th place. One of my favorite teams in the world, with an exciting roster and a brilliant coach. The best team in Africa, however, is dealing with a significant injury – their best-ever player, Sadio Mane, is out. Getting back to the knockout round for the first time since 2002 is a near-impossibility without Mane.
GROUP B
England – Group winners. The youngest captain of a 2018 World Cup team is still the youngest captain in 2022 – Harry Kane. He’s one World Cup trophy away from being crowned the greatest ever English footballer – a title that essentially makes you royalty for the rest of your life. Harry can do it. COYS!
United States – Group runners-up. Much like 2014, I despise the USMNT head coach but have high hopes for the team in spite of him. A lineup with Pulisic, Reyna, McKennie, Adams, Dest, and Musah is good enough to beat Wales and hang with England. If Berhalter drops any of that group for an MLS scrub, god help us all.
Wales – 3rd place. It’s cliche to say that it all comes down to one game, but the Nov. 21 match against the US basically determines whether Gareth Bale gets to play a World Cup knockout round game before he retires. Bale, one of my 5 favorite players ever, deserves one last chance at age 33 to dominate a game in front of millions of eyes before he calls it a career.
Iran – 4th place. I see lots of chatter on social media about how manager Carlos Quieroz has the best ever Iran team at his disposal, but it should say something that even as the world’s foremost Gregg Berhalter hater, I really am not worried about the US-Iran match with how big the gulf in talent is. This Iran team might not score a goal in Qatar.
GROUP C
Argentina – Group winners. After getting the monkey off their proverbial backs last summer with a Copa America title, Argentina is understandably expecting a deep run in Qatar. Messi doesn’t NEED to win this tournament to cement his place as the GOAT, but he needs to at least get to the semis in his fifth and final World Cup to go out on a high note.
Mexico – Group runners-up. I truly think the second team to come out of Group C is a 50/50 toss-up. Mexico really has not played well over a year, but it’d be so on-brand for Mexico to finally make the quarterfinals with their worst team in 28 years. This will be a very defensively sound, very boring side – something we haven’t said about Mexico in years.
Poland – 3rd place. It’ll probably be impossible for Poland to be worse than they were in 2018, where their opponents sold out to stop Lewandowski at all costs and implored the other Polish attackers to beat them. They couldn’t – and I think this group of Polish wingers and attacking midfielders might actually be a step down from 2018 – a 1-0 win against Mexico is their path to the knockout round.
Saudi Arabia – 4th place. The worst team at this World Cup, full stop. This might actually be the least talented team to make a World Cup since El Salvador in 1982. Mexico and Poland will be highly motivated to put as many goals past the Saudis as possible to go through on goal difference. Have fun with the LIV Tour, though.
GROUP D
France – Group winners. For the first time since 2006, the defending champs should avoid the dreaded hangover – France is simply too talented to collapse like the last three champs have. I do think their extremely inexperienced midfield limits their prospects against the other contenders (Brazil, England, Argentina, Portugal) but it’s certainly good enough to top the group.
Denmark – Group runners-up. Anyone who has watched the Danish since 2017 knows this is no longer a “fringe contender” but a real force. I think they’ve leapfrogged teams like Belgium, Netherlands, and Croatia in the international pecking order and have a real shot at this thing – especially if the timeless Christian Eriksen is in form.
Australia – 3rd place. This is not a good Australia team – probably worse than the last two editions that crashed out early. But with the benefit of being drawn with Tunisia they might earn their first win since 2010 – and actually give themselves hope heading into the final group stage game.
Tunisia – 4th place. The worst possible draw for the African side – who might’ve had a shot had they not been handed France and Denmark. Expect them to be much more defensively sound after a dismal 2018 showing where they allowed 8 goals in 3 games.
GROUP E
Germany – Group winners. It’s Germany at the World Cup. Enough said. 2018 was just a blip, this well-oiled machine is back to the blueprint that got them deep into the 2002-2014 World Cups – calling up very young, very talented, very motivated players rather than relying on aging stars.
Spain – Group runners-up. Gavi, Pedri, and Ansu Fati are all going to be asked to star for Spain at an extremely young age. If they pass the test, we could be looking at a new golden generation of Spanish football just a decade after the last one. If they fail, it’s hard to see where they go from here without the anchors from the past.
Japan – 3rd place. I feel horrible for the Samurai Blue, who likely would be on to the knockouts had they been drawn in Groups A, B, C, or H. With this exciting young team, they should put up spirited fights against Germany and Spain and crush Costa Rica. But anything other than a group stage exit would be a major shock.
Costa Rica – 4th place. Thanks to Saudi Arabia, this actually isn’t the worst team on the board. It is an EXTREMELY old team, though, and one that – while experienced – is probably going to be athletically compromised in all three of its games. I love that Ruiz, Borges, Duarte, Navas, and Campbell are getting send-offs, but it was probably time to call up a new generation.
GROUP F
Belgium – Group Winners. This is extremely tenuous – I have almost no confidence in this pick. Belgium’s back four was old four years ago, and hasn’t been updated at all. I love Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld – two of my favorite center backs of all time – but they are far far too old to be relied on in World Cup knockout games.
Croatia – Group runners-up. I’d have them topping this group if I wasn’t so concerned with their age as well. Since Mandzukic retired, Croatia has been dying for a young, dynamic center forward and they simply haven’t produced one. The ageless Luka Modric and perennially clutch Ivan Perisic can only do so much without a striker to service.
Canada – 3rd place. Alphonso Davies is the best player in the history of Canadian soccer and he’s 22 years old – this tournament is simply a stepping stone for him and the young Canucks – they really can contend in 2026 for a quarterfinal spot if they have a few performances to build off in 2022.
Morocco – 4th place. I’m now realizing I essentially have all African teams flaming out in Qatar, which sucks. I want at least 2 or 3 of them to make the knockout round but man, FIFA did not do the CAF any favors with this draw. Morocco showed in 2018 they can hang with the best – but it’s hard to see a path through in a deep, if not top-heavy, Group F.
GROUP G
Brazil – Group winners. The easiest draw imaginable essentially gives manager Tite three games to warm up and get prepared for the games that will define his and Neymar’s legacies. I think this is the best Brazil team since 1982 – but as we saw in the last four cups, South American teams tend to underperform relative to the European powers lately.
Switzerland – Group runners-up. It’s a shame that a low-ceiling side like the Swiss gets to go through at the expense of a high-ceiling team like Japan or Senegal – but that’s the luck of the draw. This team is a solid mix of old stalwarts like Xhaka and Shaqiri and young guns, but there is nothing at the striker position of any note.
Serbia – 3rd place. Basically the opposite of the Swiss, the Serbs rely incredibly heavily on a couple out-and-out strikers to carry the load. Mitrovic and Vlahovic are dynamic and can change a game in an instant – but it’s a bit like an NBA team with two centers and nobody to pass them the ball.
Cameroon – 4th place. Wherfore art thou, Samuel Eto’o? The first Cameroon team to play in a World Cup without their GOAT since 1994, it’s a far cry from the teams he led to dominant qualifications in Africa. I love that Rigobert Song, likely their second best player ever, is managing the team. But it’s a massively challenging situation with their dearth of top-level talent.
GROUP H
Portugal – Group winners. If we can all get over Ronaldo for a second, this is actually a better Portugal team than the one that made the semis in 2006. Every position is two-deep with world-class talent, and if Ronaldo is simply a cog in the machine they can go all the way. If he demands service like it’s 2012 instead of playing as a teammate given his age, big yikes.
Uruguay – Group runners-up. The first coaching change for Uruguay in two decades brought new life into this side – and hoo boy is Darwin Nunez good. The fabled Suarez-Cavani partnership should probably make way for Nunez, who should get the start at striker and be the focal point of a strong team. I love the midfield too, Bentancur and Valverde are good enough to anchor a cup winner.
South Korea – 3rd place. If Heung-Min Son was healthy, they would probably stand a chance. He’s at worst the 10th or 12th best player in the world and gets this team to himself, essentially playing the 2012-2018 Ronaldo role where if you dare pass it to someone else in an attacking move you’d better be damn sure they score.
Ghana – 4th place. The Ayew brothers are so far past their prime that it’s really limiting for this Ghana team. Being the sons of the greatest ever Ghanaian footballer precludes them from being pushed aside for younger talent – which would probably be a prudent move in a group with two extremely strong teams at the top.
KNOCKOUT ROUND
Round of 16
Netherlands def. United States
Argentina def. Denmark
England def. Qatar
France def. Mexico
Germany def. Croatia
Brazil def. Uruguay
Spain def. Belgium
Portugal def. Switzerland
Some things to look for in the Round of 16: how well do France and Brazil play? Is England struggling to score or is Kane in form? Can Portugal’s midfield dominate a game the way we think they can? Has Germany solved their forward problem?
Quarterfinals
Brazil def. Germany
Argentina def. Netherlands
Portugal def. Spain
England def. France
This is when we really make decisions – I really freaking love these picks. France is not going to repeat – they lost too much in midfield with Pogba and Kante not being available. Spain is supremely talented, but also lacks the experience of the Portuguese. The Dutch defenders are elite, but can they hang with this speedy yet bludgeoning version of Argentina? I don’t think so. And a Brazilian grudge match against Germany is going to be one-way traffic with a loss in this game being a non-starter for the Selecao.
Semifinals
Brazil def. Argentina
England def. Portugal
A lot of the talk in the week leading up to the tournament has been between Brazil and England – with players like Neymar and legends like Roberto Carlos giving their seal of approval to Harry Kane. Players love when they see an opponent who works as hard as they do, and cares as much as they do. Perhaps the four people with the most weight on their shoulders entering the tournament – Messi, Ronaldo, Neymar and Kane – meet in these dream semis.
Third Place
Argentina def. Portugal
Wouldn’t this be an awesome way to send off the two greatest ever – with a head-to-head matchup at a World Cup? A guaranteed goalfest if this happens.
2022 FIFA World Cup Final
Brazil def. England
Like I said – this is the best Brazil team in 40 years. The depth never ends – Neymar, Richarlison, Gabriel Jesus, Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo, Casemiro, Thiago Silva, Allison, Ederson. I also think Tite is the perfect manager for this kind of a team – stern and unflinching. Gareth Southgate has developed a reputation as a players’ manager – something that might hurt his team in a game of this magnitude. Tough decisions need to be made and egos need to be bruised to win a World Cup.
FOR THE NEUTRALS/SOCCER NEWBIES
Here’s a list of my favorite players at the Cup, in no particular order
Harry Kane – England. Spurs fans like me have known since 2014 – he’s got that dawg in him. Nobody tries harder, gives more, or leads by example the way he does. As Harry goes, England goes.
Gareth Bale – Wales. He signed a short-term deal with LAFC solely to stay fit to play in this World Cup – and all he did was win a title in the process. Now, in his final ever games, he gets to rep his country with immense pride.
Gio Reyna – USA. A little birdie told me that if he is healthy – which is a massive if, given his CVS-receipt-long list of injuries – he’s the best player on the USMNT.
Andres Guardado – Mexico. His fifth and final World Cup – one of the hardest working, most tireless, and most inspirational players in the history of the game.
Lionel Messi – Argentina. The GOAT got his long overdue international glory last summer – if he wins in Qatar it’ll be his Brady/Jordan moment – where the public decides all debate is over, the greatest ever is without doubt.
Robert Lewandowski – Poland. Much like Bale, he’s his nation’s greatest ever player, an incredible person, and someone who is immensely proud to represent his country.
Christian Eriksen – Denmark. The fact that he’s here is a miracle. After nearly dying of a heart attack during Euro 2020’s opening match, he’s recovered and back in the fold as Denmark’s #10. What a story, and what a player.
Gavi – Spain. He’s 18 years old and already has 12 caps and runs the show for Spain and Barcelona. When you’re this good, this young, the ceiling is impossibly high.
Kevin de Bruyne – Belgium. Maybe it’s because he’s 31 now but still looks like a child, but this man just does not get the respect he deserves – he’s one of the best playmakers of all time.
Atiba Hutchinson – Canada. He’s played 20 years as a professional and 19 years as a Canadian national team player and finally, at the ripe old age of 39, gets to captain his country at a World Cup.
Luka Modric – Croatia. He might go down in 25 years as the best midfielder ever – criminally underrated until the end of his career, he’s finally getting his due at age 37.
Richarlison – Brazil. Okay, I’m letting my Spurs bias show, but he is impossible not to root for. An industrious, lovable, fiercely competitive striker.
Heung-Min Son – South Korea. He’s simply the best Asian footballer ever – and might be the most well-respected person in the entire sport. We all love Sonny.
Edinson Cavani – Uruguay. He’s spent his entire career playing second fiddle – to Suarez and Forlan for Uruguay and to Zlatan and others at club level. Nobody, and I mean nobody, misses wide open chances in big moments like him. I’m pulling for El Matador to finally get his moment in the sun in his final World Cup.
AND FINALLY – WHAT TO BET
Here are some of my favorite prop bets for the Cup, with their current odds.
Qatar (to advance from Group A) +275 – They’re going to have a chance and will get a friendly whistle.
Germany (to win Group E) +125 – A draw with Spain is probably enough to get them there.
Group C to be the highest scoring Group +500 – Saudi Arabia might give up 10-12 goals alone.
Saudi Arabia (to lose all matches) +200 – They’ll be large underdogs from minute one.
Gavi (to win Young Player Award) +800 – If it’s not Germany’s Musiala, it’ll be Gavi.
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